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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Report - February 17, 1988 (68)TO: THE CITY COUNCIL FROM; THE CITY W.-NAGER'S OFFICE C' -*'LT 'CIL COAIAIUNICATIO'� DATE: IVO. February 17, 1988 SUBJECT: APPROVE FUNDS FOR 41ENDED CONTRACT FOR GENERAL PLAN UPDATE JONES 8 STOKESASSOCIA TES, INC. / 1725 - 23rd STREET, SUITE 100 / SACRA .fENTO, CA 95816 .9761444-5638 FAX 916/444-0308 ;November 9, 1981 Mr. Jim Schroeder Community Development Director City of Lodi 221 'West Pine Street Lodi, CA 95240 " = ' Subjectz "General T-1, -`- u Update '_ "Economic and Fiscal Studies Dear Jim: As we discussed earlier, and based on our meeting regarding Nolte and Associates' vroposal to. prepare a Public Facilities and Financing .Plan (Financing Plan) ;for the City, we recommend = ` that ;t. detailed: market study be <conducted to guide the gen-, eration of'land- use `projections atthe level'of detail needed for :''the Financing Plan. In'addition, we feel that an expanded T market study ;,-will greatly improve our abilityto develop realistic ,planning options for future growth in Lodi. Angus McDonald;.& Ass --z has indicated that they will need'annual land'use projections ('ror the General Plan (GP] dune= frame) : for :the ::;Existing GP (without 'Measure A) , `- preferred .-GP alternative, and ':the -adopted GP. This', level -of detail was not ., included in; 'our current-` scope `of.,work.. - F Our current: scope _of work calls €or'overview`, order of magnitude fi.ndings on economic market factors affecting landuse. policy: Our current budget for an` economic "conditions au:alyszs , is $2,564,"of ;whish ;;$1,032 ..has .been spent on the Background. _. Report. The scope of work outlaned.below.:considerab2y expands n- this effort =-with the 'development° ofdetailed absorption_ sched r ides by=land-use that will, ba;helpfvl zn definingand quantify= alternative buildout land. use projections; the, .estimated t cost4,£or, this --would - be � $ 1516:: Therefore`; > additional :study ;the fufids needed' to. conduct an --expanded market study are estimated s V: Mr. J i m Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 2 Our current contract calls for a fiscal impact assessment at a cost of $5,980, of which $1,720 has already been spent on the Background Report. The City may chocse to have Angus McDonald & Associates complete a fiscal study for the three planning options and preferred GP alternative since this study would tie in directly with the Financing Plan. In this case, Jones & Stokes Associates would use McDonald's study to prepare an impact assessment for the Options Assessment Report and the Draft EIR as outlined in the scope of work below. Our estimated cost to prepare an impact assessment from McDonald's fiscal study is $2,304, leaving a surplus of $1,956 in our contract for fiscal studies. Accounting, for the $9,984 needed to complete the expanded market study, our contract would need to be increased by a net $8,028 to complete both the market and fiscal impact studies, -as shown below: Total Amount Estimated Under Remaining Cost of... Net Change..< Existing Funds. - New Sccpe in Existing Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 3 o Estimation of recent residential land absorption rates. Identification of areas within the City of recent residential development for both single-family and multifamily developments. Identification of current residential vacancy rates. o Estimation of recent commercial. land absorption rates by type (i.e., retail, heavy commercial, office com-ner-. cial), Identification of areas within the City of recent commercial development by type of development'. Identification of current commercial vacancy rates, if available. o Estimation of recent industrial land absorption rates by: type (i.e.', light and heavy industrial). Identification. of areas within the City of recent industrial expansion and development by type of development. Identi€ication: of current industrial vacancy rates, if available.-- o -Assessment of the demand for future residential develop Ment based. on Lodi's role in the region and independent. agency projections of Lodi's population growth-.-,,.'poten tial.:: :Estimates of residential -land"absorption "rates:= will be prepared based on these findings and assumed;; residential density factors. o Assessment of the market prospects for future commercial development (retail and office) based on: the'; deiands generated by projectedresidential growth, currentperw capita expenditure rates, projected income_. growth, _-. Lodi's role. within. the regional. economy', and .competition -from.other commercial areas. _.'The demand;..for.commercial office development : will be analyzed by „different -i t- g between��;local:.servng:-and_ regional users Estimates = r - �. will _ be; `prepared of - commercial land : =absorption t _. basedon ;the above and 'assumed ---,floor - area ratios for `- ,._. .t various °commercial development types. = k o:Assessment the _ market prospects' for :_future industrial .of-, development based on recent development trends within- _. . Lodi and the region, pro3ected _labor force° growth,` projected employment: growth, Lodi`s ;role: within,`the regional:. _ :economy, = competit� on from _:other ,,indus.trial areas, and an analysis ofrfactors affecting=the ='location =t dezisions bf industrial firms: Estimates`will'be :pre - j r pared of industrial absorption,.rates based onthe_ 4above and assumed industrial floor ratio S - f Y i Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 4 o Discussion of the probable sequence and location of residential, commercial, and industrial development within the study area. o Based on 5 -year land absorption schedules, development of annualized projections for the preferred GP, to be assessed in the Draft GP and Draft EZR. Our scope of work does not include development of land use projec- tions for the Pre -GP Financing Plan (GP without Measure A) since Nolte & Associates include this effort in their proposal, Our proposal also does not include projections fox the adopted GP. Fiscal. Impacts Scope of Work o This task assumes that Angus McDonald & Associates will provide buildout forecasts of operating budget costs by department, and revenues by source for the three plan- ning options and the preferred .GP alternative, as -well - as a written description of methodology and assumptions used to generate forecasts. Jones '& Stokes Associates will use the buildout -forecasts >to.calculate'the:incre- mental changes in operating".budget costs=and_' revenues from FY 1986-87 btdget levels. --for ` the.- planning options and the preferred alternative. Net -_fiscal impacts will be determined by comparing projected incre- mental costs and revenues associated. "with -future.growtl for the three planning options and preferred option". o Jones & Stokes Associates will identify service require- _-ments ,,associated with _future growth; tinder .the three planning options and preferred _alternative., 'Based on these order -of -magnitude projections of service require- - _ meats, 't-is-assume_d_that= Nolte &Associates will level op a .Capital Improvements Program far _the three: planning options and the preferred -alternative, _detailing{ the required .capital improvements by type {i a : traffic circulation; .. improvements,; water =supply ;system:_: reprove- _ x meats, '.police and ,fire `facilities improvements, associated -costs, of ;each _ Jones & Stokes Associate _and .- will use the. Capital Improvements Program fg compare ... costs. Costs by .type will .be .:compared for the three X planning options and",preferred alternative: r o This task assumes that Angus,McDonald-.& Associates -will prepare - and-. provide':'a Financing Plan :designed to mite- _ gate "the costs projected by riolt6 & <Associates, includ= -. - ng -development ; fee' schedules for ,the ahree planning t - k:. r .. Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 5 options and the preferred alternatives. Jones & Stokes Associates will summarize the financing options provided by Angus McDonald & Associates and incorporate them into the Options Assessment Report and the Draft EIR. CITY COUNCIL THOMAS A. PETERSON City Manager EVELYN M. OLSON. Mayor CITY OF L O D I ;OHN R (Randy) SNIDER ALICE M. REIMCt City Clerk Mayor Pro Tempore CITY HALL, 221 WEST PINE STREET Cit DAVID M. HINCHMAN CALL BOX 3006 RONALD M. STEIN 3A-%tES W. PINKERTON. fr. LOEX CALIFORNIA 95241-1910 City Attorney FRED M. REID (209) 334-5634 TELECOPIER 1209) 333-6745 February 22, 1988 i1 JONES & STOKES ASSOCIATES. INC. / 1725 - 23rd STREET, SUITE 100/ SACRAMENTO. CA 95816 9161444-5638 FAX 916/444-0308 November 9' 1987 .. Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 2 Our current contract calls for a fiscal impact assessment at a cost of $5,980, of which $1,720 has already been spent on the Background Report. The City may choose to have Angus McDonald & Associates complete a fiscal study for the three planning options and preferred GP alternative since this study would tie in directly with the Financing Plan. In this:, ,case, Jones & Stokes Associates would use McDonald's study to prepare an impact assessment for the Options Assessment Report and the Draft EIR as outlined in the scope of work below. Our estimated cost to prepare an impact assessment from McDonald's fiscal study is $2,304, leaving a surplus of $1,956 In our contract for fiscal studies. Accounting,-, for, the .$9, 984 needed to . complete the expanded .' market study; our contract would need" to be`"increased "by`' a "net $8,028 to complete both the market and fiscal impact studies, as shown.below: Total. Amount Estimated Under Remaining Cost of Net `Change = Existing 'Funds New Scope it Existing Contract to Date of Work Contract Economic conditions 2,564 1,532 11,516 Fiscal. 5,980 4,260 .2 ,304 -1,956 Total 8,544 6,222 13,820 +8,028 ',Exp anded'Market Study Scope of Work 04 :Jo nes & "Stokes.Associ"ates will provide a detailed analysis of_.znarket"factors :a"ffeccing the:,demand for"residentza , cammer cial and.industrial land .in Lodi'""over the =20=year ,pZ;anning .period An analysis of land �absorpts.on. schedules showing repared based an signataon in 5-y ear will be development by GP "de g ,constrained"':and unconstrained .growth scenarios;.";"This analysis will include. F Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 3 o Estimation of recent residential land absorption rates. Identification of areas within the City of recent residential development for both single-family and multifamily developments. Identification of current residential vacancy rates. o Estimation of recent commercial land absorption rates by type (i.e., retail, heavy commercial, office commer- cial). Identification of areas within the City of recent commercial development by type of development. Identification of current commercial vacancy rates, if available, o Estimation of recent industrial land absorption rates by v industrial) � (i:e. F ��ght aid heA.Y ,l de-�a�.r-(cation o areas<withYn the City"'of °recent industrial expansion ana aF-uPlnnmPnt by type of development. Identification of ' current industrial vacancyrates, if available. o Assessment of the demand for future residential develop- ment based on Lodi's role in the region and independent agency projectiocs of Lodi's. growth poten- tial. Estimates of residential ''land' absorption rates will be prepared based on these findings and assumed residential density factors. o Assessment of the market prospects "for -future commercial development (retail and office) ;.based:on. the, demands generated by projected residential. growth,_.. current `per capita expenditure. rates, projected income: "'growth, Lodi's role within the, regional. economy,• and competition �... ..��.---------4-1 �.reas The 'demand for:: commercial office development wild.be`analyzed.`by,differentiating �2etiaePn -. local... ,�€xv�ny3 ,and -;: regional; ,users "`. < Estimates = will be `prepared of. commercial: Land„ absorption rates ,. . ..based ' on-:.ahe above and: assumed : floor area:.,ratios ;for Various commercial development types.; o Assessment.of;the market prospects for future znaustrial. ;.development based :on `'recent development;_trends within _ :_... 'Lodi -Wand"`: he=`region, projected :labor .;;force ;growth, _ projected .:employment =: rowth Lodi`s role :within the a :g. .. regional;"economy., competition'.from` other "industrial areas,. and:an.'enalysis of factors afrectzng..:the..location 'decisions`of industriah firms. "°<Estimates wilh,be prem. ;:-pared of ndustral.land absorption :;rates based°;on the above and "assumed `industrial" flcior `ratios. , Mr. Jim Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page 4 o Discussion of the probable sequence and location of residential, commercial, and industrial development within the study area o Based on 5 -year land absorption schedules, development of annualized projections for the preferred GP, to be assessed in the Draft GP and Draft EIR. Our scope of work does not include development of land use projec- tions for the Pre -GP Financing Plan (GP without Measure A) since Nolte & Associates include this effort in their proposal. Our proposal also does not include projections for the adopted GP. Fiscal Imnacts Scope of Work o This task assumes that Angus McDonald & Associates will provide buildout forecasts of operating budget costs by department, and revenues by source for the three plan- ning options and the preferred GP alternative, as well as a written description of methodology and assumptions used to generate forecasts. Jones & Stokes Associates will use the buildout forecasts to calculate the incre- mental changes in operating budget costs and revenues from FY 1986-87 budget levels for the three planning options. and the preferred_ alternative. Net fiscal. impacts will be determined by comparing projected incre- mental costs and revenues associated with future growth -_ for the three planning options and preferred option. o Jones & Stokes Associates will identify service require- ments associated with- futuxe growth under the three planning options and,'preferred alternative. Base. on these order -of -magnitude projections`of service require- ments, it is assumed that -.Nolte & Associates.will devel=. op a Capital Improvements..Program for the three -planning Mr. J i m Schroeder November 9, 1987 Page S options and the preferred alternatives. Jones & Stokes Associates will summarize the financing options provided by Angus McDonald & Associates and incorporate them into the Options Assessment Report and the Draft EIR. o -Jones & Stokes Associates will incorporate assumptions, .methodology, analysis, findings, and mitigation into an EIR-formatted section, organized by operating budgets and capital improvement programs. We would like to include the expanded market study in the Final Background Report. We estimate that 4 weeks would be needed to complete this study. Please sign a copy of this fetter and return it to us to indicate your concurrence with its terms. Please call Debbie Loh if you have any questions. Thank you for your consideration of this matter.